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The EMH says, and only says, that markets are efficient at processing information. We all expect the Fed rate rise, prices thus reflect this. But if we get new information that there won't be one then there will be a swift and substantial move in markets to account for that new information. So, when we get the announcement, we can indeed treat it as a test of the EMH. If the rise comes through, as we expect, then prices should not move very much. If a rise does not happen, as we don't expect, then prices will move substantially. And it would be a substantial move too. Because the only reason anyone can think of for there not being a rise is that there's some howlingly bad piece of information that the Fed currently has and the market as a whole does not as yet. Which would rather drive a substantial change in prices--that new information thing again. We expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates simply because that's what they've been indicating they will do. No raise would be the surprise and that's why we don't think there won't be one.
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